Let's Talk Mitch Marner And The Blackhawks

Blackhawks Twitter is engaged in a prospect war ahead of a rather weak draft class. While neckbeards argue with teenagers over minors, the Blackhawks have a decision point that's looming. Or, I should say, a point where they might make no decision at all.

Free agency.

The free-agent class is not the best this off-season. Regardless of what general manager Kyle Davidson suggests to beat writers, he's not going to expose his hand. And it seems after last year's "off-season promise," Davidson has gotten a hell of a lot better at giving vague political answers.

I don't blame him, that's his job.

But it does hint at how far away the Blackhawks are from contention. A process that began with a rebuild in 2022. A process with the expectation of playoff readiness around 2027 and Stanley Cup contention around 2030.

But is it going to take longer?

Let's take a look at the Mitch Marner situation. Forget one second about whether or not you believe that he's a playoff performer. This is an elite winger that, at 28, will provide immediate impact on the Blackhawks' offense, and more importantly, Connor Bedard's development as a center.

Marner has all the negotiating power. He gets to say no to a team that makes an offer. More likely than not, a player of his caliber in his prime wants to win now or at least very soon.

With the salary cap expanding to $95.5 million, teams at the top suddenly have a lot more room to squeeze in an expensive winger. Marner is expected to ask for $14 million.

The Blackhawks certainly have the space for it. They have a projected salary cap of $66 million and $29 million in space. The floor is going to be $70.6 million.

But are they ready for contention any time soon? Does adding Marner bring them closer to at least playoff consideration?

Realistically, no. For both questions.

Marner, or a player like him, will only come here if the Blackhawks are close to that next step. Even if the Blackhawks are close to being playoff-ready in 2026-27, that alone might attract an elite free agent. Anything can happen in the playoffs. Throw in a butt-load of prospects who Kyle Davidson has been selling as the hottest thing since sliced bread, well, who the hell wouldn't want to come here?

Unless what Davidson is selling isn't as good as Hawks fans are led to believe.

If there's a player like Marner who's available, wouldn't you at least try to get them on? Maybe it's the term?

A player like Marner might ask for around a seven-year deal. Long-term stability, good city, a team that's going to be winning, at least soon. That's what he wants.

If Davidson believes that this thing was going to take around five years from tear down (2022), that puts us around 2027. Marner will be 30 by then. Not old enough to be considered a dinosaur, but on the declining side of his prime. And that's after missing the consecutive playoffs.

Seven years from 2025 is 2032. Originally, some writers projected the Blackhawks to be contention-ready (a step above playoff regulars) to be around 2030. Marner will be 33 by then. I find it hard to believe that Marner will want to stick around by then.

I've always expected this rebuild to take a long time. Kyle Davidson said it on numerous occasions (and some fans still didn't believe him). But what if this is going to take a little longer than we expected?